Wallerstein: "Capitalism is coming to an end"

Interview with Immanuel Wallerstein in Le Monde.

"I think it is also possible to see a move
Operating unfortunately even more violent than capitalism, as seen in
contrary to establish a more egalitarian and redistributive. "


There just get to work!

---

Immanuel Wallerstein, a researcher in the department of sociology at the University
Yale, former president of the International Sociological Association

"Capitalism is coming to an end"

LE MONDE

Signatory of the manifesto of the Social Forum of Porto Alegre ( "Twelve proposals
for another possible world "), in 2005, you are considered as one of
inspiring the movement. You founded and directed the
Fernand Braudel Center for the Study of Economics historical systems
and civilizations at the University of the State of New York at Binghamton.
How do you replace the economic and financial crisis in the current
"long time" in the history of capitalism?

Immanuel Wallerstein: Fernand Braudel (1902-1985) distinguished the time
the "long term", which sees succeed in human history systems
governing the relationship of man to his physical environment and,
Within these phases, time long economic cycles, described
by economists as Nicolas Kondratieff (1982-1930) or Joseph
Schumpeter (1883-1950). We are now clearly in a phase B
a Kondratieff cycle that began there thirty to thirty-five years
after a phase which was the longest (from 1945 to 1975) five cents
year history of the capitalist system.

OAS_AD ( 'Middle1');

In a Phase A, profit is generated by material production,
industrial or other, in a phase B, capitalism must, for
continue to generate profit, is financialisation and take refuge in
speculation. For over thirty years, companies, states and
s'endettent households, massively. We are currently in the final
part of a Kondratieff B phase, where the virtual becomes real decline,
and that the bubbles explode one after the other: the bankruptcy cases
increasing the concentration of capital increases, unemployment is progressing, and
the economy is experiencing a situation of real deflation.

But today, this time cycle coincides with, and
Therefore aggravates a period of transition between two long
period. I think that we have entered the last thirty years in the
terminal phase of the capitalist system. This differs fundamentally
this phase of the uninterrupted succession of cycles
earlier, is that capitalism fails to "system" in
sense of the physicist and chemist Ilya Prigogine (1917-2003) when
a system, biological, chemical or social deviates too much and too often its
situation of stability, he fails to regain balance, and there
then attends a bifurcation.

The situation becomes chaotic, uncontrollable forces for the
hitherto dominated, and we see the emergence of a struggle, not between
proponents and opponents of the system, but between all the stakeholders to
determine what will replace it. I reserve the use of the word "crisis" in this
type of period. Well, we are in crisis. Capitalism is coming to an
end.

Why is it not rather a new mutation of capitalism,
which has already known, after all, the passage of merchant capitalism
industrial capitalism, then capitalism industrial capitalism
Financial?

Capitalism is an omnivore, it captures profit where it is most
important at a time he is not content with small profits
marginal on the contrary, it maximizes in forming monopolies - it
has tried to do recently in biotechnology and
information technology. But I think the opportunities
Real accumulation system have reached their limits. Capitalism
since its birth in the second half of the sixteenth century, feeds on
wealth differential between a center, which converge profits, and
peripheries (not necessarily geographical) increasingly impoverished.

In this regard, the economic of East Asia, from India,
Latin America, is an insurmountable challenge for the "world economy"
created by the West, which no longer control the cost of
accumulation. The three curves global price of labor,
raw materials and taxes are all up strongly since
decades. The short period neoliberal who is in the process has been completed
temporarily reversed the trend: in the late 1990s, these costs
were lower than in 1970, but they were far more
Important in 1945. In fact, the latest period accrual real --
the "thirty glorious" - has been possible because States
Keynesians have forces in the capital. But again, the
limit has been reached!

Are there precedents for the current phase, as you describe?

There have been many in human history, contrary to what
refers representation, forged in the mid-nineteenth century, a progress
continuous and inevitable, including in its Marxist. I prefer to
confined to the thesis of the possibility of progress, not its
inevitability. Although capitalism is the system that has produced,
extraordinary and remarkable way, the more goods and wealth. But
we must also look at the amount of losses - for the environment, the
companies - it created. The only good is that which allows
to get as many lives rational and intelligent.

However, the most recent crisis similar to that of today is
the collapse of the feudal system in Europe, between the fifteenth and
Sixteenth century, and its replacement by the capitalist system. This period
which culminates with the wars of religion, sees the influence of collapse
authorities royal, noble and religious on the richest
communities and cities. That is built by
and successive trials so unconscious, unexpected solutions
whose success will eventually "make system extending gradually in the
form of capitalism.

How long the current transition should it take, and what
Could it lead?

The period of destroying value concludes the phase of a cycle B
Kondratieff usually lasts two to five years before the conditions
entry into a phase A, when a real benefit may be fired again
Production of new material described by Schumpeter, are met.
But the fact that this phase corresponds to a current crisis system
made us enter a period of political chaos during which
dominant players, head of business and Western states, will
do whatever it is technically possible to find the balance
but it is likely they will not succeed.

The more intelligent, they have already understood the need to establish
something entirely new. But many actors act
already, so disorderly and unconscious, to bring new
solutions, without knowing yet what system emerges from these
guesswork.

We are in a period, rather rare, where the crisis and the powerlessness of
leave a powerful place in the free will of each: there is
today a period of time during which we each have the possibility
to influence the future of our individual action. But as this future
will be the sum of the number of such shares incalculable, it is absolutely
impossible to predict which model will prevail eventually. In ten years there
will perhaps be more clear in thirty or forty years, a new system
has emerged. I think it is also possible to anchor a
operating system unfortunately even more violent than capitalism, as
see the contrary is put in place a more egalitarian and
redistributive.

The previous changes of capitalism have often resulted in a
moving the center of the world economy ", for example from the Basin
Mediterranean to the Atlantic coast of Europe, then to that of
USA? The future will be centered on China?

The crisis that we live is also at the end of a policy cycle
that of American hegemony, which began in the 1970s. The
USA will remain an important player, but they will never
regain their dominance over the increasing centers
power, with Western Europe, China, Brazil, India. A new
hegemonic power, if one refers to braudélien long time, can
put even fifty years to succeed. But I do not know which one.

Meanwhile, the political consequences of the current crisis will be
enormous, as the masters of the system will try to find
scapegoats for the collapse of their hegemony. I think half
the American people will not accept what is currently happening. The
internal conflicts will therefore grow in the United States, which are about
become the country of the world's most politically unstable. And do not forget
that we, the Americans, we are all armed ...

Interviewed by Antoine Reverchon

Article published in the edition of 12.10.08